Is the Real Estate Market Good or Bad?

Real estate is local.  Everyone understands that.  Yet, with all of the national media attention on the “National Housing Market” it is easy to lose site of how local real estate actually is.  I agree with Jonathan Miller that There is No National Housing Market and it is more important to focus on the market where you live and/or where you will be moving.

In the end, an actual good or bad market is determined by the collective confidence of the local consumer that lives or wants to live in that area.  In other words, do people have confidence that purchasing a home in that area is a good investment.  The concept of consumer confidence on a real estate micro market can be determined by many factors such as home price trends, governmental trends, building trends, schools, crime, proximity to amenities, etc.

In the Greater Cincinnati area we have seen a slow down in the number of monthly real estate transactions occuring this year versus 2007.  According to statistics compiled by the Ohio Association of Realtors, the Greater Cincinnati Area has seen an 11.6% decline in number of properties sold in the period of January - October 2007 versus the same time period in 2006.  Even though this is a significant decline in inventory turnover, the average selling price for the area has only dropped by 2.6%.  This has lead to a large increase in the number of properties for sale on the market and therefore longer days on market for a seller to sell their property.

In the micro market of Indian Hill the situation has been reversed this year.  For the same period of January through October there has been a huge 31% increase in total number of properties sold and yet a significant decrease in the average and median sales prices.

This is good news for those looking to buy in Indian Hill and bittersweet news for the sellers.  For Buyers it is an obvious opportunity to find a property at a good price.  For property sellers this means that indeed properties are selling at a good pace…but expectations of the value of their property should be adjusted downward.

So, back to the original question of a good versus bad market.  The data suggests that it is a good time to be a buyer of property in Indian Hill while sellers who don’t have to sell may wish to consider waiting until demand increases.

Indian Hill Real Estate Market Statistics - First 3 Quarters of 2007

There is so much data available between public record and the MLS that I can sometimes get bogged down trying to put it all into order.  Luckily, I have a stats package that allows me to analyze MLS data very easily.  The best way to use the stats package is to analyze the trends in the Indian Hill Real Estate Market.

The following graphs will show several market metrics for the first 3 quarters of 2007 (Jan - Sept.) as compared to the same 3 quarters last year and in 2005. Everyone hears about the “bad real estate market” these days and it is interesting to dig into the numbers and see where this negative press is coming from.  The first graph below shows the total number of properties sold in Indian Hill:

There is a very interesting divergence in the red 2007 line as compared to the previous 2 years.  This says that there were significantly more properties sold during the months of March through June as compared to previous years.  There is also a significant downward trend in the number of properties sold in the months from June 2007 to September 2007.  This “bubble” of increased transactions over this past summer seems to contradict the general feeling that the market is slow.  Of course we all know that the market in general isn’t great for home sellers but there is still demand for Indian Hill properties.

The next graph will tell us the average price of the properties that did sell each month compared to previous years.

I don’t see a major difference in this year versus 2005 or 2006.  The value of Indian Hill Real Estate is so varied that there is always going to be a good amount of variability in the average sales price on a month-to-month basis.

The next graph will fill in the question as to whether or not sellers are willing to negotiate more on price these days.

This graph takes the final sales price and divides it by the asking price at the time the purchase contract was written, thereby giving us an average percent reduction in price per deal by month.  It does appear here that we were trending slightly lower at the beginning of this year as compared to previous years in the average negotiated discount.  Once you mentally remove that extreme dip in May (obviously skewed data from one or two deals) you can see that the 3rd Quarter of 2007 seems to have come back in line with previous years.

Finally, we must look at the average days that a property remained on the market before a purchase contract was secured.  It is important to realize that this data can be misleading depending on if a home was re-listed several times before selling.  When a property that hasn’t sold is taken off the market and then put back onto the market (either by the same agent or by a new one), the “Days on Market” goes back to zero.  So a property could have been on the market for 180 days and not sold and then another 60 days in the new listing before an acceptable contract was signed.  This property would have a true “Days on Market” of 180 + 60 = 240 days but the statistical data in the MLS will show only the 60 days on market and ignore the original 180 days.

It appears as though the average Days on Market for the Indian Hill area have remained somewhat steady.  I do think that this graph shows a bit of a slower market this year since June than would be expected.  This correlates to what many home sellers in Indian Hill are feeling.

Overall it does seem that the Indian Hill Real Estate market is fairing pretty well through this nationally tough period.  We tend to be insulated from the major demand swings experienced on the East Coast and West Coast though.  Most people realize that this is a very good time to be a Buyer in this market and with good negotiation there are deals to be had.